The Secret Armada: How Russia is using shadow fleets in the Mediterranean to circumvent oil sanctions

When two giant oil tankers drifted at dawn in 2023 in the Bay of Ceuta, a small Spanish enclave on the north coast of Africa, everything happened astonishingly quickly. Within a few hours, the valuable cargo – Russian crude oil – was pumped from one ship to another on the high seas. No port, no inspection, hardly any evidence. A mission below all radar. The ships' transponders had been switched off for several days beforehand. The destination: China . The origin: Russia.

Experts have long considered it an economic war at sea, a global game of cat and mouse, triggered by Russia's shadow fleets. Despite the sanctions, it is estimated that around 600 tankers are still operating in international waters. They operate under the radar, intended to remain undetected, and are often dilapidated old vessels, up to 20 years old.

Russia's goal: to circumvent sanctions and continue selling oil profitably. But Denmark , Estonia, and other countries now want to stop the secret voyages, and tankers belonging to the shadow fleet are to be confiscated. Russia's ambassador, however, is already warning of a "direct confrontation" in the Baltic Sea.

Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin government has been under massive economic pressure. The West has repeatedly attempted to severely impact Moscow's revenues from the lucrative oil business with sanctions, price caps, and export bans.

Sanctions: Russia should export, but not earn anything from it

Just last week, the 17th package of sanctions against Russia was passed. It targets almost 200 ships of the Russian shadow fleet, which Moscow uses to circumvent the oil embargo imposed in the wake of the Ukraine war. In total, around 350 ships are now subject to sanctions. Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU has also imposed entry bans and frozen the assets of more than 2,400 individuals and organizations, including Russian President Putin. A near-complete ban on imports of Russian crude oil has also been imposed, and more than €200 billion of the Russian Central Bank's assets have been frozen.

In December 2022, the G7 countries, together with the EU, also agreed, among other things, on a price cap for Russian oil: a maximum of $60 per barrel for crude oil transported by ship. Ships that violate this requirement, according to the conditions, are not allowed to receive Western insurance or technical assistance. The goal: Moscow should continue to export but earn significantly less from it.

Russia's strategy: shipping companies, tankers, anonymous shell companies

Russia, however, reacted – with a counter-strategy. It began by building its own transport and insurance capacities, often through front men or third countries. Since then, a secret infrastructure has been established in the shadow of the world's oceans, along with the fleet. Shipping companies, tankers, and anonymous shell companies are linked to achieve one goal: to export Russian oil despite sanctions, critics complain. Many of the 600 tankers in this unofficial armada barely meet Western safety standards. Some sail under Liberian or Panamanian flags, operated by companies whose owners are hiding in Dubai, Hong Kong, or the Marshall Islands.

Denmark therefore now intends to stop tankers belonging to the Russian shadow fleet. Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced that he would soon invite representatives from neighboring countries, Great Britain, and the Netherlands to a meeting to examine legal options for confiscating shadow fleets. His argument: The shadow fleets pose a security and environmental risk, especially when they operate without a flag and are uninsured. The goal is to effectively combat the "worst cases"—that is, dilapidated or stateless vessels.

Russia reacted promptly, viewing any interference with tanker transports as a provocation. In a statement to TV 2, the Russian ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, described the discussed measures as contrary to international law and compared them to "piracy." Barbin stated that the West was preparing a "direct confrontation" in the Baltic Sea region. He also warned against an "uncontrolled development" of the situation. The diplomat also dismissed Denmark's arguments as "hypocritical." Concerns about the maritime ecosystem were a pretext, Barbin explained. The attempt to shift responsibility for the tense situation in the Baltic Sea onto Russia was unfounded.