Presidential election in Poland: They must have miscalculated

Rafał Trzaskowski, the loser of the Polish presidential election on June 1, apparently received more votes than initially determined. The results from several polling stations were recounted because some had miscalculated against Trzaskowski – the candidate of the pro-European Tusk government. The country is now debating whether all votes should be recounted. The election was a close call, with a result of 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent: Each candidate received more than 10 million votes, with the winner, Nawrocki, receiving almost 370,000 more.

Polish citizens have filed a record number of more than 54,000 so-called election protests with the relevant court, pointing out possible irregularities. After the election five years ago, the number was only 5,800. Justice Minister Adam Bodnar therefore ordered an investigation by the public prosecutor's office. The question is whether the election commissions simply miscounted or whether there was deliberate action behind it. However, the Supreme Court plans to determine the validity of the election as early as this week. The relevant chamber, however, is not even recognized as a court by the European Court of Justice; it was created during the right-wing nationalist PiS government and filled with politically motivated appointments.

"Aren't you also curious about the true election results?" Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk asked on his X-account a few days ago, addressing election winner Karol Nawrocki and the incumbent President Andrzej Duda directly. Nawrocki was nominated by the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party. Like Duda, he will act in the interests of the PiS party. This includes, above all, continuing to block the return to a legal system based on the rule of law.

Tusk's government had anticipated trouble with the relevant chamber of judges and therefore proposed before the presidential election that the 15 most senior judges of the Supreme Court should instead decide on the validity of the election. President Duda rejected this proposal. A dissolution of the chamber, which is illegitimate under EU law, is unlikely as long as the PiS party maintains influence.

While Tusk was praised in Brussels for a well-organized EU Council Presidency, which ends on June 30, he is still struggling with the same old problems in Poland . And now there's the dispute over the election results, which he himself is exacerbating with posts like this: "As we know, the honest have nothing to fear." The doubts have been sown, and they could further deepen the divisions between the camps.

Some supporters of the liberal, pro-EU camp are already warning against creating a myth of the loser. Others are calling on the liberal camp to be more defensive. If such irregularities had surfaced after a PiS candidate had lost, there might have been mass protests long ago – this is the argument of those who advocate for clear consequences after the first incorrect counts.

On election night, when it initially appeared that Trzaskowski would win, PiS politicians complained about unfair conditions and sowed doubts about the outcome. Soon, this was no longer heard. On Friday, some supporters of both political camps gathered in front of the Supreme Court to protest. President Duda told Tusk that he was a sore loser: "Stay away from the ballot papers!" he responded to X.

A court-ordered recount was conducted in 13 electoral commissions. In almost all of them, votes for Trzaskowski were partially attributed to his opponent, Nawrocki. In one pub in Krakow, the results were simply swapped. However, there were also errors to Nawrocki's detriment, albeit on a lesser scale. Polish Justice Minister Adam Bodnar, who is also the Attorney General, is now demanding a recount in nearly 1,500 of the more than 32,000 polling stations.

Bodnar is interested in polling stations with very striking results: those that differ significantly from those of neighboring polling stations and the overall results of the region, or appear contradictory to the outcome of the first round of voting.

Bodnar also demands that the Supreme Court submit all election protests to the public prosecutor's office for review, rather than just the five percent that has been done so far. Bodnar also does not recognize the court's competent chamber. There is also controversy within the Supreme Court over the chamber's legality. Some judges distanced themselves from it in an open letter.

Time is running out; Karol Nawrocki is scheduled to be sworn in as Poland's new president on August 6. Even those in favor of further counting have little doubt about this, even if Nawrocki's lead is shrinking even further. But the PiS party and its candidate feel strong enough. They have announced their intention to bring down Tusk's government as soon as possible, before the election the year after next.