Local elections | Election campaign in NRW: Six dead and a conspiracy theory

On Sunday evening, AfD chairwoman Alice Weidel posted a single sentence on X: "Four AfD candidates dead." Below, she referenced a post by coronavirus denier Stefan Homburg, who described the deaths of four AfD candidates for the North Rhine-Westphalian local elections the weekend after next as "statistically almost impossible." Homburg's post was shared over 3,000 times. X owner Elon Musk added two exclamation marks to the post in a comment.

But first, back to the AfD candidates. Since mid-August, AfD candidates for local parliaments in Blomberg, Bad Lippspringe, Schwerte, and Rheinberg have died. The AfD local politicians were between 59 and 71 years old. On Tuesday evening, it was announced that two more AfD local politicians from the Bergisches Land region had died, but in May and July. One of the two had a pre-existing liver disease and died of kidney failure; the other committed suicide. Regarding all the deceased AfD politicians, the respective district police authorities say there is no evidence of foul play.

Stefan Homburger's statement that the number of deceased AfD local politicians is statistically almost impossible is also incorrect. Around 20,000 seats are awarded in the local elections. "Such deaths of candidates in local elections unfortunately occur in all elections – regardless of party or voting group affiliation – and therefore also in the upcoming local elections. Currently, this affects not only the AfD, but also the Animal Welfare Party, the FDP, and the Free Voters, among others," explains a spokesperson for the state election director. A total of twelve candidates for the upcoming elections have died.

This presents a challenge for the respective cities. In Blomberg, for example, where an AfD candidate died, the Lippe district has allowed the party to nominate a new candidate. However, the ballot papers issued for the district in question and the mailed postal ballots will no longer be valid. All of this simply needs to be reprinted and mailed. The election in the affected district is legally considered a by-election.

The AfD North Rhine-Westphalia is deliberately objective. While it states that it intends to investigate the deaths, it currently considers them to be "tragic isolated cases." None of the deaths are truly mysterious, according to a spokesperson for the board of the extreme right-wing portal "Nius."

Officially, the AfD can easily present itself as objective. Conspiracy theories surrounding the deaths spread even without appropriate quotes from officials. This is being ensured by an international, right-wing online mob. For example , British ex-hooligan Tommy Robinson wrote and shared several posts on the topic. One claims that AfD politicians are being murdered with "unprecedented speed." Others trumpet secret service actions. Social media comments call on Donald Trump to demand autopsies of the deceased.

The AfD benefits from such narratives, however unrealistic they may be. The party happily and regularly assumes the role of victim. The stories of the evil Antifa sabotaging the election campaign have become worn out. "Mysterious deaths" and whispers of statistical impossibilities elevate the party's victim and opposition narrative to a new level. Voting for the AfD thus becomes a courageous act of resistance. This pleases the party and those around it.