Kremlin must not be "rewarded": Former brigadier general warns of further Russian invasion

Russia has been fighting tirelessly against Ukraine for three and a half years. Should sanctions one day be lifted and the Kremlin regain more money, this will pose a risk for Europe, a former brigadier general is certain. He is calling on EU states to speak out more forcefully.

Russia could become an even greater threat and invade another country in Europe. Austrian military expert and retired Brigadier General of the Austrian Armed Forces, Gerald Karner, said this in an interview with Ukrinform. "Such a risk exists if Russia emerges victorious from the war against Ukraine."

If Moscow ends the war with a "favorable outcome" for the Kremlin, "the Russian Federation will be able to restore its armed forces," Karner said. By "favorable outcome," he means, for example, the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of state revenues. He believes new attacks could affect the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Poland.

"That's why the outcome of this war is so crucial," Karner continued. "If Russia 'comes out of the water dry,' it will pose a direct threat to the security of all of Europe."

In this scenario, the Suwalki Gap cannot be ignored, Karner pointed out. This is the narrow corridor connecting the NATO states in northeastern Europe. Poland and Lithuania are separated by a mere 104 kilometers. The distance between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus is smaller than anywhere else.

Karner: Kremlin has been at war with Europe since the 2010s

And Moscow is already targeting Europe. "We have been confronted with this form of hybrid warfare for some time now," says Karner. "If we take into account election interference, destabilizing actions, and disinformation campaigns, then such a war actually began in the 2010s – at the latest in 2014/2015. However, it has noticeably intensified in recent years." Europe should have responded "earlier and more decisively, especially with regard to informing its own population."

The 70-year-old does, however, have one thing to praise for one European state. Following the airspace violations, particularly by a large number of drones over Poland, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski issued a clear warning: "Should airspace be violated again—be it by an aircraft or a drone—the object will be shot down. The warning has been issued, and after that, Russia can no longer complain to the UN. That is the right language. That is the language Russia understands," the former brigadier general concluded.

The Austrian warned: "For too long, we have acted as if the war were somewhere far away and only concerned us because we like the Ukrainians." However, this is clearly not the case. "This is an existential conflict, which may also be existential for us: Russia now poses less of a physical threat to us, but undermines our way of life, our democratic values, and our freedoms."