Estonia prepares for attack: "Anyone would shoot at Russian troops, with or without NATO"

In Estonia, Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon attempt to test NATO's Article 5 obligation to provide mutual assistance. Military expert Carlo Masala also warns of this: In his new book, he writes that the Russians could soon attack the Estonian border town of Narva. Almost all of the 60,000 residents there are Russians. What would happen in such an attack?

Former General Riho Terras, for professional reasons, has had to mentally rehearse all possible Russian attack plans against Estonia. For seven years, he served as Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. Since 2020, Terras has been a member of the European Parliament for the conservative Isamaa party. He is Vice-Chair of the EU Defence Committee. Terras emphasizes that Estonians are not intimidated by Putin and his provocations. After all, they feel well prepared for all kinds of attack scenarios.

ntv.de: The Estonian border town of Narva is making headlines in Germany because military expert Carlo Masala is warning of the "Narva Scenario": Putin could invade the city – and thus test NATO and its Article 5 obligation to provide assistance. How realistic do you consider this scenario?

Riho Terras: The Narva scenario has been a recurring topic since 2014. But it must not become a self-fulfilling prophecy. For that to happen, NATO states must demonstrate strength together with Estonia. Putin must not even consider attacking Narva or any other city on the Russian border. The vast majority of Narva's 60,000 residents are Russian-speaking. But there is also a Russian-speaking majority in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, for example, around which bitter fighting has been raging for three years. However, there is a major difference between Narva and Pokrovsk. Narva belongs to Estonia and is therefore part of both the European Union and NATO.

So the ethnic Russians in Narva also support NATO and the European Union, not Putin's Russia?

Narva's population is 95 percent Russian-speaking. Half of these people have lived there for centuries. My father is from Narva. I myself was born 30 kilometers away. Both I and other people from Narva say with conviction: Narva is a border town, but it belongs to Europe. If Narva were not defended together with Estonia's allies in the event of an attack, the entire concept of NATO and the EU would be history. If you live in Narva and cross the bridge into Russia, you have a direct comparison to the standard of living in the EU. Then you know why you don't want to give up that standard of living. This is also why many Russian-speaking people in Estonia have Estonian citizenship.

Is this one reason why the bridge between Narva and the Russian border town of Ivangorod remains open, even for pedestrians? To show people: It's nice to see how your Russian neighbors live?

There are several reasons for this. The most important is that many people in Narva have ties to Russia. Before World War II, the other bank of the Narva River, which marks the border, also belonged to Estonia. After the war, the city was split in two, but many people on both sides are related. The bridge must remain open for people who have to cross it every day. There's no particular strategy behind this. There's no reason to close it.

Russia has scheduled military exercises on its border with the Baltic states for the fall. The invasion of Ukraine has also begun with maneuvers near the border. Is this a threat from Putin to Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia?

The Russians have been conducting this exercise, called Zapad, for decades; it dates back to Soviet times. And this exercise was never specifically directed against Estonia, Lithuania, or Latvia. It was always about simulating various conflict scenarios with NATO. Therefore, NATO, in turn, must address this Russian exercise. While one can never completely rule out Russian provocations against the Baltic states, Russia doesn't actually have enough strength to open another front. The Ukrainian soldiers are fighting bravely against Russia, thus robbing Putin of the strength for another adventure.

Do you think a Russian attack on the Baltic states is unlikely?

There's always the possibility that Putin overestimates himself. Because Putin is sometimes not well-informed by his people. Decisions are then made that are illogical. The attack on Ukraine was also illogical, from any perspective. Putin hasn't achieved a single goal he set for himself in Ukraine. If Putin actually attacks Estonia or another Baltic state, NATO must be ready. But I'm surprised that people are asking whether NATO would come to our aid in Estonia in such a case. Damn it, we're NATO!

So you have the impression that Narva would be well protected from an attack?

I don't want to play with this scenario in Narva because, for me, it's not one. You can take any city on the border with Russia and say the same thing about it, for example, on the border between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Lithuania. For me, it's illogical to emphasize the Narva scenario so much. Besides, history shows that the Russians never invaded Estonia through Narva because the terrain there is easily defensible.

The Estonian army has 7,100 active soldiers, right?

These more than 7,000 soldiers are army instructors. However, there are 50,000 soldiers in reserve who conduct exercises every year to defend their homeland. They would all be ready within 48 hours in the event of an attack. We actually have about 90,000 trained soldiers in Estonia. But we don't yet have enough equipment, weapons, and ammunition for the remaining 40,000. Next year, Estonia will spend 5.6 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, with the goal of making our army even larger and more effective.

So no chance for Putin’s army?

If you imagine a multiple-choice test, Estonia has already chosen not to fight the Russians. That was in 1939. Our government thought that might be better. We lost ten percent of our population in the Russian attack. Finland, for example, fought back then. While it lost territory, it retained its honor and most of its land. Estonians know that. That's why every tree in Estonia would shoot at Russian troops, whether with NATO or without.

Estonia is one of the six EU member states that still have compulsory military service. All healthy male citizens must complete at least eight months of military service. Do you generally consider this the right approach for other countries, including Germany?

It's certainly a good concept for very small countries like the Baltic states. Estonia can't afford a professional army of the necessary size. Estonians are currently debating whether conscription should also apply to women—they can currently choose to serve voluntarily. If larger countries like France or Germany invest enough money in their military, professional armies would probably suffice. For me, however, conscription has another dimension: It connects society with the army.

What do you mean?

Every family in Estonia has one or two members who are or were in the military. If I, as a politician, say during an election campaign that I will spend five percent of the gross domestic product on defense, people think: Aha, my son was a conscript and is now in the reserves – he'll have better equipment for defense. This means that many people vote for a party that supports this. 85 percent of the Estonian population supports conscription as such. Only among young men between 18 and 25 who have not yet completed their military service is support lower at 60 percent.

Germany is planning to reintroduce conscription, based on the Swedish model. It will work a bit differently than in Estonia. According to this plan, all men and women of military age will be examined. If there aren't enough volunteers, they will be drafted. What do you think about this?

German politicians must decide this. What's important is that the German government has recognized that war in Europe is possible and that NATO allies must defend themselves together. This should serve as a model for countries like Spain or Italy. Defense spending in these countries is very low. We must all work to make NATO as a whole stronger, because it's not just about Russia—it's also about China, and it's about Iran. These countries will closely observe what we achieve in Europe and then decide which side they want to be on.

Are you angry with Spain and Italy because they don't invest enough in their military?

I have these discussions every day in the European Parliament. Austria and Ireland, for example, invest less than one percent of their economic output in defense. To me, these are clear cases of free riding. These countries say: Okay, we're secure enough, we don't need all this. Why do we in Estonia have to improve our defense at the expense of our social spending, while the others don't? Estonian mothers also want child benefits.

The Spanish would probably say: Well, we are very far away from Russia and that's why we don't feel so threatened.

All of Europe is under attack every day. Not with conventional weapons, but through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Even the Spanish and Italians will need help at some point. The Baltic states have shown solidarity in Europe. For example, when the first wave of refugees came to Europe through the Mediterranean, the Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians helped, including financially. Or take the Estonian soldiers who were deployed alongside the French in the Central African Republic. What were we Estonians looking for there? Nothing. But we understood that security is a shared responsibility.

How dangerous are cyberattacks on European countries – and are Estonians particularly affected?

No, we are not. We have been working on this issue since 2000 and have built a digital government system. When Russia attacked Estonian government websites in 2007, we were prepared and were largely able to fend off the attack. We have the Center of Excellence for Cyber Defense in Tallinn, which deals with all NATO cyber defense. This means we are less affected by cyberattacks than other countries because we are more capable of defending ourselves. But I have friends in German companies, for example, who are unsure about this. Cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns are part of Russia's arsenal for unsettling European societies. This insecurity creates hatred, which in turn increases insecurity. At some point, it leads to street fighting. Nobody wants that.

What can be done to combat the hatred spread by Russian disinformation campaigns?

Truths. Why don't people in Narva believe Russian propaganda? Based on everyday experience. Here's a comparison with the weather: If I look out the window and the sun is shining, whoever is on TV can tell me it's raining. I still believe the sun is shining because I can see and feel it myself. This seeing and feeling is important. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are beautiful countries that anyone can visit to see that we lead completely normal lives. We don't walk around with machine guns and are afraid of something. We are prepared for defense, but we are not afraid. We are not afraid because in Estonia we firmly believe in NATO. We must continue to work with our friends in the US and Europe to ensure that Putin also believes in NATO – because then he won't attack.

So, from Germany's perspective, it is wrongly considered challenging to convince the many ethnic Russians living in Estonia to join NATO and the EU?

There are 300,000 Russian speakers living in Berlin, or 10 percent of the population. This isn't portrayed as a problem. In Estonia, Russian speakers are citizens of Estonia. Most, especially younger people, speak Estonian. In all societies and population groups, there are people who are dissatisfied with their government. In Estonia, this isn't a problem caused by the Russian-speaking population. Putin can't use Russian speakers in Estonia as a pretext for attacking. In the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, for example, Russian-speaking Ukrainians are fighting against Russian troops. Not everything depends on what language you speak. 10 percent of Estonian conscripts and reservists are Russian-speaking.

Aren't there people in Estonia who have a Russian passport but not an Estonian one?

Yes, they do exist. And there are also those who don't have a passport at all, but rather a so-called gray passport, which was issued to citizens of the Soviet Union at the time. The gray passport is the most convenient, because it allows you to travel from Lisbon to Vladivostok without having to apply for a visa. But these are mostly older people. We have an additional problem with Russian citizens: In recent years, many of them have wanted to renounce their Russian citizenship. But they can't because the Russian state has to approve it.

Frauke Niemeyer and Lea Verstl spoke with Riho Terras