MORNING BRIEFING - Germany/Europe -2-
DJ MORNING BRIEFING - Germany/Europe
The morning market overview, compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
HOLIDAY NOTICE
THURSDAY: Stock trading in Moscow is suspended due to the national holiday.
FRIDAY: Stock exchange trading is suspended in Moscow because International Women's Day is being celebrated at a later date.
TOPIC OF THE DAY
China apparently reserves the right to tighten its easing of rare earth export restrictions again. Beijing will limit rare earth export licenses for US automakers and other manufacturers to six months, people familiar with the matter said. Chinese negotiators agreed to the temporary restoration of export licenses during negotiations in London. The agreement in London is intended to ease trade tensions between the two countries and maintain an agreement reached in Geneva in May. In return, according to the informants, US negotiators agreed to relax some of the recent restrictions on the sale of industrial goods such as aircraft engines and related products. This also applies to the export of ethane, which is needed in plastics production. Details of the agreement are still being worked out, the informants said. The White House declined to comment.
COMPANY OUTLOOK
08:00 DE/Deutsche Bank AG, CEO Sewing at Goldman Sachs' European Financials Conference
11:00 DE/Jenoptik AG, AGM
2:00 p.m. US/Blackrock Inc, Investor Day
14:15 DE/Commerzbank AG, CEO Orlopp at Goldman Sachs' European Financials Conference
22:05 US/Adobe Inc, 2Q results
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT
(for German stocks and stocks from the Stoxx or Euro Stoxx 50 index)
Company Dividend Bremer Lagerhaus 0.50 EUR Eurokai 1.50 EUR + 0.50 EUR special dividend Hawesko 1.30 EUR Instone 0.26 EUR Surteco 0.30 EUR
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
- GB 08:00 GDP month April FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+1.1% yoy previously: +0.2% y/+1.1% y/y Three-month installment PROGNOSIS: n/a previously: +0.7% qoq/+1.2% y/y Trade balance April PROGNOSIS: n/a previously: -19.9 billion GBP Industrial production April FORECAST: -0.5% yoy/-0.2% yoy previously: -0.7% y-o-y/-0.7% y-o-y - US 14:30 Initial applications for unemployment benefits (week) FORECAST: 246,000 previously: 247,000 Producer prices May FORECAST: +0.2% y/y previously: -0.5% vs. Vm Core rate (excluding food and energy) FORECAST: +0.3% y/y previously: -0.4% y-o-y
OVERVIEW FUTURES / INDICES
Current: Index last +/- % DAX Futures 23,818.00 -0.2% E-Mini Future S&P 500 6,007.60 -0.2% E-Mini Future Nasdaq-100 21,815.60 -0.2% Nikkei-225 (Tokyo) 38,182.28 -0.6% Hang-Seng (Hongk.) 24,211.79 -0.6% Shanghai-Comp. 3,405.17 +0.1% Wednesday: INDEX last +/- % DAX 23,948.90 -0.2% DAX future 23,869.00 -0.8% XDAX 23,853.97 -0.4% MDAX 30,631.70 +0.3% TecDAX 3,912.54 -0.3% SDAX 17,141.42 +0.4% Euro Stoxx 50 5,393.15 -0.4% Stoxx 50 4,571.24 -0.3% Dow Jones 42,865.77 -0.0% S&P 500 6,022.24 -0.3% Nasdaq Composite 19,615.88 -0.5%
FINANCIAL MARKETS
EUROPE
Outlook: Consolidation on the German stock market is expected to expand on Thursday. "The overweighting of Europe is obviously being reduced somewhat," said one trader. Profit-taking is particularly attractive for investors in the dollar zone due to the high currency gains. The market is also continuing to wait and see whether a trade agreement will also be reached between the EU and the US. Tensions in the Middle East are also weighing on sentiment, even though oil prices are currently recovering somewhat after the previous day's upward surge. "The chances of a peaceful solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program are declining," said the trader. After the rally that began in April, the situation remains overbought from a medium-term perspective. Therefore, even good data such as Wednesday's US inflation data tends to be used for profit-taking. This applies especially to the favorites of the recent bullish waves. "If inflation remains low, the medium-term picture on the stock markets will also remain positive," said the market participant.
Review: The news situation was generally described as positive, but at the same time, partly unclear. The positive news that the US and China had reached a framework agreement in London was followed later in the day by comments from US President Trump that caused more confusion than clarity. Trump spoke of tariffs of 55 percent for China and only 10 percent for the US. Market participants couldn't quite make sense of this. Details of the framework agreement had already been lacking beforehand, which is why stocks as a whole reacted little. Apparently, however, China is once again facilitating access to rare earths, while in return the US is easing restrictions on chip exports to China. US consumer prices for May were also noted positively, fueling speculation in the US that interest rate cuts might occur, but they failed to provide any boost – especially since the reaction on the US stock markets was also rather muted. The Stoxx sub-index of retail stocks declined, losing 1.8 percent. The 4.4 percent decline at fashion group Inditex weighed on this. Zara's parent company had presented quarterly figures that showed a slowdown in growth as a result of the global trade disputes. Sales missed analysts' expectations. The share price of competitor H&M fell 2 percent.
DAX/MDAX/SDAX/TECDAX
A narrow hold – Bayer gained 3.8 percent and was a DAX winner. Kepler and HSBC raised their price target and also upgraded the stock to "buy." Siltronic and Aixtron benefited from a strong performance by the US semiconductor index SOX, which received a boost from good figures from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC. Siltronic gained 8.3 percent and Aixtron 7.3 percent. Suss Microtec gained 0.8 percent. Defense stocks were repurchased after profit-taking the day before. Rheinmetall recovered by 2.9 percent. They had fallen by almost 6 percent the day before. According to observers, this was also supported by the fact that company executives had bought shares after the recent price setback. Hensoldt rose by 2.3 percent. Renk recovered by 3.5 percent. They had fallen by almost 12 percent the day before following a downgrade by Bank of America.
XETRA AFTER-MARKET
A fifth-row announcement provided the only tradable news. Cliq Digital traded 9 percent higher at Lang & Schwarz, trading at €5.31. Major shareholder Dylan Media plans to launch a public partial buyback offer for up to 2,060,000 shares at a price of €6.06 per share at the annual general meeting.
USA - STOCKS
Slightly lighter - Neither favorable inflation data nor an agreement in the trade dispute between the US and China provided lasting support for Wall Street. Traders instead spoke of disillusionment with the trade agreement between the world's two largest economies. According to negotiators, the result was a framework to get the agreement reached in May back on track. However, market observers feared a vague framework that would hardly go beyond the Geneva Agreement. And that agreement didn't last long. Another source of disappointment was China's apparent reservation of the right to tighten the easing of rare earth exports again. Another negative reaction was the US appeals court's upholding of Trump's reciprocal tariffs pending final resolution. Meta fell 1.2 percent. According to sources, the company is in advanced talks to invest around $14 billion in Scale AI and hire the startup's CEO. Lockheed Martin lost 4.2 percent. According to a report, the US Air Force is ordering significantly fewer F-35 fighter jets than planned for 2024.
USA - BONDS
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds fell by 6 basis points to 4.42 percent. US consumer prices rose slightly less than expected in May. This fueled speculation about interest rate cuts. Yields fell to daily lows amid strong demand at an auction for ten-year bonds. Traders spoke of another litmus test for confidence in US bonds.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 12, 2025 01:37 ET (05:37 GMT)
DJ MORNING BRIEFING - Germany/Europe -2-
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
last +/- % 0:00 Previous day Wed, 18:10 % YTD EUR/USD 1.1524 +0.3% 1.1488 1.1486 +11.0% EUR/JPY 165.79 -0.2% 166.05 166.00 +2.0% EUR/CHF 0.9412 -0.1% 0.9423 0.9415 +0.8% EUR/GBP 0.8482 +0.0% 0.8478 0.8479 +2.5% USD/JPY 143.86 -0.5% 144.54 144.52 -8.1% GBP/USD 1.3587 +0.3% 1.3548 1.3547 +8.2% USD/CNY 7.1748 -0.2% 7.1865 7.1856 -0.3% USD/CNH 7.1838 -0.2% 7.1968 7.1968 -1.8% AUS/USD 0.6501 -0.0% 0.6502 0.6517 +5.1% Bitcoin/USD 107,887.00 -0.6% 108,536.95 109,400.55 +16.2% YTD based on the previous day's closing price
Interest rate cut speculation and falling bond yields weighed on the dollar, with the dollar index falling 0.4 percent. The euro rose to its highest level in almost a week. In Asian trading on Thursday, the yen and the franc were in demand as safe havens. This is due to an increased threat in Iran, as a deadline set by President Trump for concluding nuclear talks is expiring and there are new threats from Israel and Iran.
RAW MATERIALS
OIL
CRUDE OIL last VT closing +/- % +/- USD % YTD WTI/Nymex 67.95 69.12 -1.7% -1.17 -5.4% Brent/ICE 69.51 70.78 -1.8% -1.27 -6.9% YTD based on the previous day's closing price
Crude oil prices rose significantly, with prices rising by as much as 5 percent per barrel. Hopes for an end to the trade dispute between China and the US, which could then lead to a rise in demand, the stalled negotiations on a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, according to Trump, and a more significant decline in crude oil inventories in the US than expected, provided bullish price signals. In Asia-dominated trading on Thursday, oil prices are recovering somewhat more significantly.
METALS
METALS last previous day +/- % +/- USD % YTD Gold 3,374.69 3,358.45 +0.5% 16.24 +28.0% Silver 31.62 31.57 +0.2% 0.05 +13.0% Platinum 1,108.89 1,096.44 +1.1% 12.45 +25.2% Copper 4.82 4.81 +0.2% 0.01 +18.8% YTD based on the previous day's closing price
The price of gold climbed 0.8 percent on the prospect of falling interest rates – additionally boosted by the weakness of the greenback. The price continues to rise in the Asian-dominated market, where gold is sought after as a safe haven in light of the tensions surrounding Iran.
REPORTS SINCE WEDNESDAY 5:30 PM
TRADE DISPUTE USA - CANADA
US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra has hinted at the possibility of a breakthrough in US-Canada trade talks at the G7 summit beginning this weekend in Alberta, Canada.
GERMAN EUROSHOP
has issued its first sustainable bond, a so-called green bond with a nominal value of EUR 500 million, a maturity of 5.3 years, and a coupon of 4.50 percent. The net proceeds from the issue will be used for general corporate purposes.
ORACLE
recorded double-digit revenue growth in the fourth quarter and is targeting even greater growth for the coming fiscal year. The cloud company's revenue rose 11 percent to $15.9 billion last quarter, exceeding analysts' forecasts of $15.58 billion. Oracle reported fourth-quarter earnings of $3.43 billion, or $1.19 per share, compared to $3.14 billion, or $1.11 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $1.70 per share. Analysts had expected $1.64 per share.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 12, 2025 01:37 ET (05:37 GMT)
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