Greenhouse gas emissions | Flexible climate targets

After several months' delay, the European Commission published its proposal for the EU's 2040 climate target on Wednesday. As always, the authority used bold language: It paved the way to prosperity, competitiveness, and climate neutrality, it said. "Decarbonization is a powerful engine for growth," said Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra in Brussels. "We are staying on course." But there are doubts about this. The proposal contains several highly controversial innovations.

The EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050. As an interim step, the only target currently available is the 2030 climate target, which calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55 percent compared to 1990. Brussels is now proposing a 90 percent reduction for 2040. The EU's scientific advisory board on climate had even recommended a reduction target of 90 to 95 percent in a 2023 report.

But there is currently little support for such ambition in the EU. Hoekstra has therefore presented a kind of compromise, which he phrases as follows: "We are ambitious, pragmatic, and flexible." With this, he hopes to bring both the EU Parliament and the member states, which still have to approve the Commission's proposal, on board. Hoekstra argued: "We want to build a bridge between the economy and the climate."

More flexibility is expected starting in 2030. In the future, the reduction commitments of the sectors will be offset against each other, similar to the amendment to the German Climate Protection Act by the "Traffic Light" government. Negative emissions will be recognized and better rewarded, for example, when biochar is used in agriculture. The most controversial point, however, is that international _CO2 certificates may also be counted toward the 2040 climate target, up to a maximum of three percent of 1990 emissions. This corresponds to approximately 150 million tons of _CO2 equivalents.

This marks a departure from the EU's previous policy that emissions reductions must always be "domestic," meaning they must be achieved within the country itself. Instead, climate protection is being partially shifted abroad. The CDU/CSU and SPD already agreed on a similar approach to German climate policy in their coalition agreement.

The EU Commission's proposal is met with considerable skepticism from all sides. The Association of Municipal Utilities criticized the new interim target as "unrealistic," arguing that it threatens "overregulation, economic burdens, and acceptance problems." The German Industry Association (BDI), on the other hand, welcomed the planned inclusion of international reduction credits, but demanded that this "should not be put off."

EU members of parliament also voiced criticism. Tiemo Wölken of the SPD warned of the danger that including _CO2 credits would simply embellish the balance sheet. The Commission's proposal was still "too vague and not sufficiently secured." According to Fabian Fahl, climate policy spokesperson for the Left Party in the Bundestag, "dubious _CO2 certificates are being used to fudge the way through in order to reduce some of the greenhouse gas emissions only on paper."

Criticism also comes from experts: "When it comes to the level of ambition, flexibility always means weakening," said climate expert Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The inclusion of _CO2 certificates creates uncertainty and creates a loophole. An 85 percent reduction without certificates could therefore be even better than a 90 percent reduction with certificates.

The EU Commission also wants to introduce a new mechanism under which the reduction credits from, for example, reforestation projects or solar parks would be shared between the EU and the country in which the reduction was achieved. This is intended to support developing countries in making progress in climate protection, in line with the Paris Agreement. However, how this will be designed and secured remains unclear.

Another point remains unclear: the timetable. The EU's 2040 target is supposed to serve as a template for the new and updated climate plan for 2035, which the EU must submit to the UN Climate Change Secretariat as its contribution to the Paris Agreement. The deadline for this was already in February, and many countries, including the EU, missed the deadline. Therefore, the Climate Change Secretariat extended the deadline until September 23, just a few weeks before the start of the upcoming UN Climate Change Summit in Brazil. However, since Brussels submitted its proposal for its 2040 climate target with considerable delay, time is now extremely short. The EU Council does not intend to consider the proposal until mid-September – and this will not happen without tough debates.