Bitcoin should actually be breaking new price records these days, but the mood in the cryptocurrency market is bad. What's going wrong?

The Bitcoin price is holding above $100,000 – a much higher level than most investors would have thought possible even two years ago. Despite this, sentiment is pessimistic. One indicator of this is Coinmarketcap's "Fear and Greed" indicator: at 31 points, it's clearly in the red zone, with a scale up to 100.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the mood should actually be euphoric. Why? In the past, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have adhered quite precisely to a price pattern that extends over four years: After the halving – so named because the reward for Bitcoin miners is halved every four years, which last occurred in April 2024 – the most explosive price increases occur over a period of 12 to 18 months. First with the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and then, with a slight delay, with the so-called altcoins, i.e., all other cryptocurrencies.

In the second year after the halving – which would be in 2026 – a sharp correction and a bear market lasting approximately twelve months are likely. Afterwards, prices will rise slightly again in preparation for the next halving.

Instead of celebration, October, which was particularly good for cryptocurrencies, brought a loss. And this happened while the stock markets climbed from record to record.

Did we perhaps already pass the peak in the summer at a price of around $125,000 per Bitcoin? Some are already calling it the "worst bull market of all time".

“Whether the four-year cycle still exists is a question we discuss extensively internally,” says Leon Curti, Head of Research at the asset manager Digital Asset Solutions. “It’s likely that the halving was just one factor in the cycle in the past.” More important, he says, is money supply growth, with which the Bitcoin price is strongly correlated. This, too, has historically peaked every four years.

“The halving is one reason for the four-year cycle, but its influence has diminished,” says Dominic Weibel, Head of Research at the crypto service provider Bitcoin Suisse. “Changes in liquidity and the US election cycle are now more important.”

For most experts, however, this doesn't mean we're already on a downward trend. The grand finale is still to come, but perhaps not this year. "The fourth quarter will probably be strong, but that doesn't mean the end of the cycle because the interest rate cuts will take longer this time," says Weibel.

Especially in the US, a mania among private investors is simply not possible given the high interest rates. According to Weibel, the strong inflows from institutional investors also point to a prolonged cycle. "All signs are very positive." The biggest risk likely stems from the stock market: "Should the AI ​​bubble burst, a subsequent stock market correction could also end the crypto cycle."

“Regardless of whether the classic four-year cycle still exists, the Bitcoin price typically rises particularly sharply in November,” says Leon Curti. Many factors, such as interest rate cuts and the massive increases in the price of gold, suggest that this will also happen this year. Because the biggest price gains occur in just a few days, he advises that one should definitely be invested.

The mood is particularly bleak among investors who primarily focus on altcoins, which include not only startups and memecoins, but also large, established projects like Aave, Chainlink, and Solana. Many of these experienced sharp rises last year, only to subsequently correct significantly.

“Altcoins have performed disappointingly so far. Nevertheless, there's a good chance that a surge in popularity will occur, causing altcoins to take off,” says Weibel. But this will likely happen more selectively than in the past. “Above all, those projects that generate solid profits and distribute them to token holders will be among the winners,” the Bitcoin Suisse expert adds.

Curti also anticipates a price increase in the B-list: "December could be the time for altcoins, which usually react to Bitcoin's rise with a delay," he says. They will benefit from the fact that a number of altcoin ETFs are likely to be launched in the coming weeks.

Because the prices of Bitcoin and all other coins are slightly out of sync, there are various investment strategies: Those who try to time the market have long held more altcoins than Bitcoin, which has already performed well.

At the same time, anyone who has already gone through – or suffered through – an entire crypto cycle knows that getting caught in a bear market with altcoins is particularly unpleasant. So, should you sell everything, shift your investments to Bitcoin, or simply stay invested if you think the peak has been reached?

The answer will likely depend on price movements in the coming weeks. The stronger the upward movement, the greater the potential for subsequent losses. This cycle is very different from the past, and that's not surprising: the crypto market has broken out of its ghetto and is merging with the traditional financial system.

More and more institutional investors are buying Bitcoin and Ether. Under these circumstances, it would be naive to believe that past price patterns will repeat themselves exactly.