Kashmir conflict: Impact on Indian and Pakistani politics

Until recently, the Pakistani military was under heavy criticism for its perceived role in politics. Many in Pakistan accused the generals of rigging last year's parliamentary elections to keep former Prime Minister Imran Khan from power. Army Chief of Staff General Asim Munir, in particular, was blamed for his role in Khan's imprisonment—an accusation the military denies.

"We have so many problems because of the army," a taxi driver in Karachi told DW just a month ago. "They're keeping Khan behind bars because he challenged the military's dominance."

But all that changed after the deadly attack on tourists in the town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22. 26 people, mostly Hindus, were killed.

A group called the "Kashmir Resistance" claimed responsibility for the attack. According to India, it is known as a resistance front and is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a terrorist organization designated by the United Nations.

New Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting the attack—a charge Pakistan denies. The crisis quickly escalated into a military conflict between the two nuclear-armed arch-rivals.

On May 7, the Indian Air Force launched missile attacks on what New Delhi claimed were terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Dozens of people were killed in these attacks.

Pakistani military back in control

The death toll continued to rise when Pakistan responded with its own attacks two days later.

"Unpopular regimes benefit from such military conflicts. After the Indian attack, even [Pakistani] military critics, who are generally liberal and secular, demanded that Islamabad teach New Delhi a lesson," Naazir Mahmood, an Islamabad-based political analyst, told DW.

Both India and Pakistan declared themselves victorious in the recent Kashmir conflict, and citizens rallied behind their governments.

In Pakistan, social media users showered the armed forces with nationalist enthusiasm. In some cities, people took to the streets to celebrate the Pakistani military's "success" over the Indian armed forces.

For example, Mariam Hassan, a 36-year-old doctor from Lahore, told DW that she was proud of the army's performance.

"We defended our country and did not emerge weakened from the conflict. We shot down Indian fighter jets and attacked India in various places," she said, citing information from the government in Islamabad.

Analyst Mahmood believes that with the recent conflict, the military has regained its domestic political power . "Although the military already controlled all areas of government, its influence on politics is now becoming even stronger," he said.

Lahore-based journalist and analyst Farooq Sulehria said there is no scientific method to measure how much the recent fighting has boosted the military's popularity, but social media posts and commentary in the mainstream media clearly show an upward trend.

"We must understand that support for the military stems from anti-Indian sentiment. The military will now portray this short war as its own success. It is being used to cultivate its image," Sulehria told DW.

The story of the "Defender of the Hindus"

Across the border, nationalists in India see the recent events as a "triumph" for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Pahalgam attack put enormous pressure on Modi's government to strike back and punish the perpetrators and their supporters.

"India and Prime Minister Modi had to respond to the April 22 attack, especially after the opposition and social media users posted clips of Modi berating former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for his lack of response after the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terror attack," Uday Bhaskar, a retired Indian naval officer, told DW.

"Therefore, Modi had to prove that he could lead India to 'ghus kay maaro' (Hindi for 'penetration and slashing') all the way to Pakistan's Punjab province, Muridke and Bahawalpur."

"This narrative reinforces the image of an India led by Modi as confident, powerful, and devoid of any tolerance for jihadist terrorism. This view strengthens the 'defender of Hindus' narrative, which has a positive electoral impact," Bhaskar emphasized. "The upcoming parliamentary elections in the northern Indian state of Bihar will be a test case for this."

However, the US-brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan has angered Hindu nationalists in India, noted Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, president of the Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies.

"I do not think the ceasefire is acceptable to all Indian nationalist groups as it falls significantly short of their expectations of inflicting losses on Pakistan," she told DW.

"The BJP's future policy towards Pakistan will remain unchanged until Islamabad abandons its claim to Kashmir and stops sponsoring terrorism. This is, by and large, the policy of other political parties as well," D'Souza stressed.

Further restrictions in India and Pakistan

Experts fear that, despite the chauvinistic mood in both countries after the conflict, the cost of the violence will ultimately be borne by the populations of both states.

"Pakistani military interference in politics will continue to increase, and the room for maneuver for politicians will narrow even further," said analyst Mahmood.

According to Mahmood, the latest conflict will also have economic consequences: "The government will present its annual budget in June. It has already announced that it will significantly increase the defense budget. Funding for development will shrink. I see the military ruling with an iron fist in the coming years."

For Sulehria, the current situation does not bode well for civil rights in Pakistan . "In the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, there will now be a harsher crackdown on civil movements. The authorities will resort to more repressive measures nationwide."

Asked whether New Delhi might use the conflict to marginalize critics—including political opponents and minorities—Bhaskar acknowledged that stricter social media restrictions were possible. However, he expressed hope that New Delhi would not take that route.